US Government Shutdown Impact Analysis

Historical data (1980-2025) on duration, furloughs, and economic cost

Shutdowns Recorded
11
Avg Duration
10.3 days
Total Furloughed
5.1M
Avg Cost (Present Value)
$1,193.5M

Furloughed Employees Over Time

Economic Cost vs Shutdown Duration

📊 Strong positive correlation suggests longer shutdowns = exponentially higher costs. 2019's 35-day shutdown cost $5B; 1996's 21-day shutdown cost $323M (2025 USD).

Cost Escalation Over Time

⚠️ Critical insight: Shutdown costs have grown dramatically. 1996 cost $670M; 2019 cost $6.3B (9.4x increase in 23 years, adjusting for CPI differences).

Duration vs Furloughs Correlation

Note: Weak correlation between duration and furlough count suggests scale of shutdown (# of agencies affected) is independent of duration.
Data Source & Insights
Sources:
  • Historical US Government Shutdowns (1980–2025) — Link
  • Kalshi predicted shutdown duration for 2025 — Link
  • CPI Values are from FRED. The January figure was used for each year - Link
    • Notes:
  • The total government cost of the November 1995 shutdown and the 1995-1996 shutdown was $400M. This sum has been proportionally distributed for simplicity.
    • Key Insight: 2025 shutdown projected at 28 days with ~900k furloughs. Based on 2019 data, this could cost $4-5B+